Given the complexity of the moral, ethical and business-case considerations involved, there are no easy or straightforward answers to the dilemma confronting Google with regard to the future of its Chinese operations.
But given the recent security breaches, the pendulum has swung a long way, and the case for leaving China - from both ethical and business case viewpoints – has surely grown much stronger in recent weeks.
Google’s announcement to review it’s Chinese Operations
As most of you will already be aware, Google released an announcement on January 12 to the effect that the company’s operations in China are under review, following: (a) the discovery of a highly sophisticated and targeted cyber attack on the firm’s corporate infrastructure, with the primary goal of accessing the accounts of dozens of human rights activists in China and elsewhere; and (b) a decision that the company is no longer willing to censor search engine results in China.
Although not saying anything to pre-empt the outcome, the announcement does make it clear that partial or complete withdrawal from the country is a serious prospect.
Previously, the company’s operations in China were OK …
Prior to the discovery of the attacks, Google’s approach toward China appeared to be sensible and pragmatic.
To be sure, the censorship of search engine results to which the company agreed in 2006 did go against one of the basic fundamental principles of the online world (freedom of expression and information flow).
But it was necessary. Without agreeing to censorship, operating effectively in China would have been virtually impossible (prior to the agreement, Google’s uncensored engine, Google.com, had apparently been blocked by the Chinese government on an intermittent basis – refer article), and any stand made by the company regarding censorship would almost certainly have cost it the chance to properly exploit opportunities within the country – a price which surely would have been too high given the size and potential of China as a market.
And from the viewpoint of Chinese netcitizens, any Google service, albeit a censored one, was better than none at all prior to the censorship agreement when the service was so frequently blocked.
… but the security breaches change everything
But recent events have shifted the pendulum a long way, and both the ethical and business cases for leaving have become much stronger.
Even now, ethical considerations are a long way from clear cut. Any withdrawal on the grounds of censorship would hurt Google’s Chinese staff and customers much more than it would the Chinese government. And even despite the recent attacks, human rights activists in China would almost certainly be safer using online services from Google than those provided by domestic Chinese firms.
Still, the company does now have to think long and hard about whether or not it can be confident about the secure provision of some services, especially in light of the apparent sophistication of the attacks. Given this, along with ongoing reservations about censorship, the moral case for withdrawal has grown stronger.
So too has the business case. Most obvious is the risk of backlash in rich world markets. Already significant given the contention surrounding the censorship issue, the risk to Google of backlash associated with the continuance of operations in China is bound to intensify, especially if netcitizens remain unconvinced about its ability to provide Chinese services without jeapoardising the security of human rights activists.
This matters. China represents only a tiny portion of Google’s worldwide operations (see below), and the effect of the company’s strong moral pulse as a source of competitive advantage in western markets should not be underestimated.
(Google’s Chinese operations derive about $300 million in revenue, compared to an aggregate figure $22 billion for its global operations – refer article)
Besides, Google’s experience in China has always been problematic. The company’s market share in its core search business is languishing at fifteen percent (refer article), and outside of search, many of its other businesses continue to experience problems relating to government censorship (at present, You Tube, Picasa and Blogger are all blocked – refer article).
Add all this up and there might just be a fair case for withdrawal anyway – even if it weren’t for ethical considerations.
Conclusion
There are no straightforward answers to the questions facing Google over the future of its Chinese operations.
But for now, the pendulum has swung in favor of an exit – whether partial or complete.



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